Home » What We Do » Finished Projects
The research project
The 2014-2015 You Bring Charm to the World Award Ceremony sponsored by Phoenix Satellite Television was held in Tsinghua University at the evening of April 3rd.
Finished Research Project
Project title: Dynamical seasonal forecast and projection of trend for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity under the global warming (Sponsored by the Social Commonwealth Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, Grant No. GYHY200806009; Period: 01/2009-12/2012)
Supported by this project, some important results are obtained as follows:
(1) The mechanisms of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific basin on various time scales are studies, providing a better understanding of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP basin and thus could be helpful for seasonal and intra-seasonal forecast of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity.
(2) A combined statistical and dynamical theoretical model system has been developed to forecast seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. The model system comprises of three components including the tropical cyclone genesis, tropical cyclone track and tropical cyclone intensity models (as shown in Fig.1). This system for the seasonal forecast of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity shows a good performance as seen in Table 1.

Fig.1 Physical framework of tropical cyclone theoretical model system
Table 1 The percentage of tropical cyclone occurrences affecting the three main regions for forecast and observations during the period of 2011-2015.